To delay a new round of sanctions that's looming over its head, Iran signed a nuclear fuel swap deal with Brazil and Turkey on Monday.
Tehran agreed in the deal to ship the bulk of its 3.5 percent low-enriched uranium to Turkey for deposit, in exchange for 120 kilograms of 20 percent high-enriched uranium.
But analysts say the move can hardly fill the longstanding ＂trust gap＂ between Tehran and the West, and is unlikely to fundamentally change the minds of the U.S. and it allies to give up sanctions against Iran. Therefore, the deal offers no final solution to the Iranian impasse.
IRAN SEEKS TO DELAY SANCTIONS
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said after signing the fuel swap agreement that ＂there is no reason＂ for the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany ＂to refuse resuming dialogue with Iran.＂
Analysts say the words reflect Tehran's intentions to demonstrate certain flexibility within the boundary of its policy bottom-line on the nuclear issue, and display a positive and cooperative attitude toward the international community. The objective is to postpone a new round of sanctions that is closing in on Tehran.
On the other hand, by seizing the Group of 15 summit held in Tehran as an opportunity to secure the swap deal, Iran is trying to persuade Brazil, Turkey and other developing countries to support its nuclear program.
However, Iran also declared that it will continue uranium enrichment activities, which may prevent Western countries from making positive responses to the swap deal.
OBJECTIVES OF BRAZIL AND TURKEY
The swap deal won't be possible without the essential roles played by Brazilian and Turkish leaders with their mediation efforts on the Iranian nuclear issue. But analysts point out that by signing the agreement, the two countries are also trying to achieve their own political and economic objectives.
Brazilian analysts say that behind Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva Lula's active involvement in the mediation of the Iran nuclear issue, there also is an attempt to build up Brazil's world-power status with a display of independent foreign policy.
Secondly, Brazil has its own ambitions to develop nuclear energy, and thus actively defending Iran's right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy serves that purpose.
The deal also serves Turkey's economic needs, political interests and foreign policy initiatives. Observers point out that Turkey's willingness to become the swap site under the deal reflects an eagerness to establish its credibility as a regional power with strong influence on Iran.
On the other hand, Ankara also needs Iran's cooperation in its efforts to crack down on the PKK and other Kurdish separatist groups, and any upheaval within Iran is Turkey's least hope. Therefore, Turkey has been strongly preferring peaceful negotiations in solving the Iranian nuclear issue.
WESTERN SKEPTICISM REMAINS
The deal has met with skepticism from the United States and its allies, who suspect it is just another Iranian tactic aimed to delay sanctions.
White House spokesman Robert Gibbs made it clear Monday that the swap deal won't change the U.S. effort to seek sanctions against Iran.
However, U.S. analysts point out that with the active involvement of Turkey and Brazil in the deal, Washington could expect greater resistance when pushing for new sanctions through the UN Security Council.
James M. Acton, an Iran expert with Washington-based think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Xinhua that while the U.S. will continue seeking sanctions against Iran, it has become less confident of the prospects of that effort.
In Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency hasn't responded to the deal yet. But diplomatic and media sources close to the agency expressed doubts about Iran's true intentions.
They said even with the active involvement of Brazil and Turkey, the deal reached in Tehran can hardly reduce suspicions and win recognition in the West as long as Tehran continues its uranium enrichment activities.
Research & Consulting